The stock market is an ever-changing place. In fact, it’s changing every second of every day as prices go up and down, and new factors impact the trajectory of the market. It’s important for investors ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

Searchers are feeling overwhelmed by the task of locating the wreckage of missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370. "We're not searching for a needle in a haystack — we're still trying to define where ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how ...

Bayes' theorem of probability was proposed by English mathematician and clergyman Thomas Bayes in the 1740s, and rediscovered in the 1770s by Pierre Simon Laplace, a French mathematician. It states ...

Our eyes, gestures, and tone bring us together in a more profound way than words alone. It’s why we look hopefully toward the return of in-person, face-to-face connection. In science, progress is ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...