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If the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator holds, Edwards’ warning appears justified. But the rule is not infallible. After earning ...

Is a recession on the horizon? This video analyzes the yield curve and its historical accuracy in predicting economic ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Recession fears have cooled, but a labor market chart flagged by one bearish strategist might give bullish investors pause.

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

The only way that you could argue logically that the yield curve’s 2019 inversion was a failure would be if you could re-run history to show that in the absence of the COVID pandemic, there would not ...